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Tukums vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, May 7, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.00 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.8%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-17.2%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-17.9%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-19.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 59.9% 1.67 -0.6%

Draw 21.2% 27.4% 3.65 -13.6%

Away win 19.3% 22.7% 4.40 -9.0%

Over 2.5 61.7% 56.5% 1.77 +9.2%

Over 3.5 46.1% 33.9% 2.95 +36.0%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 3–0 8.6%

#4 1–1 7.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums2.6

Ogre United0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.00

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -0.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.6%

Ogre United (A) 19.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Ogre United 19%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Tukums and 0.9 for Ogre United (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.0%. This match finished 6-1.

Tukums vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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