Today / T. Odzaci vs Smederevo

T. Odzaci vs Smederevo Prediction

Thursday, May 7, 2026

T. Odzaci

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Smederevo

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-112.7%0-27.9%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.6%1-113.2%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.5%2-16.8%2-24.3%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.9%3-12.4%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.7% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.0% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Odzaci1.0

Smederevo1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

T. ODZACI · PPG 1.00

SMEDEREVO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

T. Odzaci (H) 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Smederevo (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Odzaci face Smederevo on Thursday, May 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Odzaci a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Smederevo 36%, so Smederevo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for T. Odzaci and 1.2 for Smederevo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Odzaci are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.06 for Smederevo. This match finished 3-0.

T. Odzaci vs Smederevo Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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