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Magdeburg vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Magdeburg

PPG 0.79 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dusseldorf

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.2%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.9%1-110.1%1-25.8%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.6%3-16.4%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.9%4+-22.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 50.0% 2.00 +12.4%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -17.9%

Away win 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -27.7%

Over 2.5 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Over 3.5 37.3% 44.4% 2.25 -16.1%

BTTS 58.4% 69.4% 1.44 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.4%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0✓ 8.7%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magdeburg2.0

Dusseldorf1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGDEBURG · PPG 0.79

DUSSELDORF · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.79), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Magdeburg (H) 56.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +12.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.9%

Dusseldorf (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magdeburg face Dusseldorf in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magdeburg a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Dusseldorf 22%, so Magdeburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Magdeburg and 1.1 for Dusseldorf (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magdeburg are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 0.93 for Dusseldorf. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Magdeburg vs Dusseldorf Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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