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Dynamo Dresden vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Dynamo Dresden

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bochum

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-14.9%0-23.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.3%1-19.4%1-27.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.9%3-15.8%3-24.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 44.4% 2.25 +8.0%

Draw 22.0% 27.0% 3.70 -18.6%

Away win 30.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Over 2.5 66.4% 63.7% 1.57 +4.3%

Over 3.5 44.6% 41.7% 2.40 +7.0%

BTTS 66.3% 67.6% 1.48 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob66.3%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Dresden1.9

Bochum1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO DRESDEN · PPG 1.07

BOCHUM · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Dresden (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +8.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -18.6%

Bochum (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Dresden face Bochum in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Dresden a 48% chance, the draw 22% and Bochum 30%, so Dynamo Dresden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dynamo Dresden and 1.5 for Bochum (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.79 for Bochum. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Dynamo Dresden vs Bochum Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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