Bielefeld vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Germany - 2. Bundesliga Regular Season - 30 SchücoArena· Bielefeld Saturday, April 18, 2026 11:00

Bielefeld PPG 1.50

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

FC Nurnberg PPG 0.86

Over2.5· -3.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bielefeld face FC Nurnberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bielefeld a 50% chance, the draw 23% and FC Nurnberg 27%, so Bielefeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bielefeld and 1.2 for FC Nurnberg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bielefeld are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for FC Nurnberg. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.2%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -4.1%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -14.6%

Away 26.5%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -4.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.6% Odds: 1.67 -3.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% Odds: 2.70 -5.0%

BTTS 58.6% Odds: 1.57 -8.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bielefeld

1.77

FC Nurnberg

1.23

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -47.1%

Bet Hit 33% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.86)