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Bielefeld vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 11:00

Bielefeld

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Nurnberg

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.1%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.9%1-110.8%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.6%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.7%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 52.4% 1.91 -4.1%

Draw 23.4% 27.4% 3.65 -14.6%

Away win 26.5% 27.8% 3.60 -4.6%

Over 2.5 57.6% 59.9% 1.67 -3.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% 37.0% 2.70 -5.0%

BTTS 58.6% 63.7% 1.57 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bielefeld1.8

FC Nurnberg1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BIELEFELD · PPG 1.50

FC NURNBERG · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Bielefeld (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -4.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.6%

FC Nurnberg (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bielefeld face FC Nurnberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bielefeld a 50% chance, the draw 23% and FC Nurnberg 27%, so Bielefeld are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bielefeld and 1.2 for FC Nurnberg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bielefeld are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.86 for FC Nurnberg. This match finished 1-1.

Bielefeld vs FC Nurnberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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