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Malaga vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Malaga

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

UPCOMING

Levante

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.0%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.6%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.3%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Away win 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.4% 1.91 +2.8%

Over 3.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

BTTS 55.4% 57.1% 1.75 -3.0%

Home O1.5 48.7% 45.5% 2.20 +7.1%

Away O1.5 33.1% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malaga1.7

Levante1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MALAGA · PPG 1.42

LEVANTE · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Malaga (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Levante (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malaga face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malaga a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Levante 30%, so Malaga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Malaga and 1.1 for Levante (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malaga are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 0.91 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.4%.

Malaga vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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