Today / Spain - La Liga / Alaves vs Osasuna

Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Alaves

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

UPCOMING

Osasuna

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWW ··

// Model verdict

Home 47% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+15.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.7%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.9%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.2%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 44.4% 2.25 +15.7%

Draw 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Away win 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Over 2.5 49.0% 40.0% 2.50 +22.5%

Over 3.5 27.9% 20.0% 5.00 +23.7%

BTTS 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Home O1.5 43.6% 38.2% 2.62 +14.2%

Away O1.5 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.5

Osasuna0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.89

OSASUNA · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.7%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Osasuna (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Osasuna in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Osasuna 23%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alaves and 0.8 for Osasuna (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.22 for Osasuna. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.7%.

Alaves vs Osasuna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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