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Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:15

Athletic Club

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

UPCOMING

Atletico Madrid

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.2%0-25.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.5%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.9%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 33.3% 3.00 +16.1%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 36.5% 43.9% 2.28 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 39.5% 39.2% 2.55 +0.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 46.5% 2.15 -20.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 93 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.4

Atletico Madrid1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.29

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 1.59

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 38.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +16.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Atletico Madrid (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Atletico Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Atletico Madrid 37%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Athletic Club and 1.2 for Atletico Madrid (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.59 for Atletico Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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