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Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Villarreal

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DDL ··

UPCOMING

Deportivo La Coruna

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.9%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.9%1-110.8%1-25.9%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-16.0%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.1%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 67.6% 1.48 -26.9%

Draw 23.6% 23.8% 4.20 -0.5%

Away win 27.0% 16.0% 6.25 +41.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.8% 1.73 +3.1%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

BTTS 55.9% 54.6% 1.83 +2.3%

Home O1.5 52.2% 64.5% 1.55 -19.1%

Away O1.5 33.1% 25.0% 4.00 +32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 92 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal1.8

Deportivo La Coruna1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL · PPG 2.10

DEPORTIVO LA CORUNA · PPG 1.42

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -26.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.5%

Deportivo La Coruna (A) 27.0%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +41.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Deportivo La Coruna in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo La Coruna 27%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Villarreal and 1.1 for Deportivo La Coruna (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.42 for Deportivo La Coruna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%.

Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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