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Colo-Colo vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 21:30

Colo-Colo

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.2%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.1%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.8%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.1%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 51.5% 1.94 -20.6%

Draw 33.8% 30.8% 3.25 +9.8%

Away win 25.3% 26.3% 3.80 -3.9%

Over 2.5 33.8% 47.6% 2.10 -29.0%

Over 3.5 15.3% 27.0% 3.70 -43.4%

BTTS 42.4% 54.6% 1.83 -22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.4%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo-Colo1.2

Coquimbo Unido0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO-COLO · PPG 1.80

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.80), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Colo-Colo (H) 40.9%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -20.6%

Draw 33.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +9.8%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 25.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo-Colo face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo-Colo a 41% chance, the draw 34% and Coquimbo Unido 25%, so Colo-Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Colo-Colo and 0.9 for Coquimbo Unido (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo-Colo are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.80 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Colo-Colo vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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