Today / Santa Fe vs La Equidad

Santa Fe vs La Equidad Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Santa Fe
PPG 1.50 · HOME
3 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
La Equidad
PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.9%0-24.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.1%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.1%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 44.5%
Draw 29.0%
Away win 26.5%
Over 2.5 50.0%
Over 3.5 28.0%
BTTS 55.2%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-1
xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.2%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%
#2 2–1 9.2%
#3 1–0 10.6%
#4 0–0 6.9%
#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santa Fe1.5
La Equidad1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTA FE · PPG 1.50

LA EQUIDAD · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Santa Fe (H) 44.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 29.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
La Equidad (A) 26.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santa Fe face La Equidad on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santa Fe a 45% chance, the draw 29% and La Equidad 27%, so Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Santa Fe and 1.1 for La Equidad (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santa Fe are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.11 for La Equidad. This match finished 3-1.

PredictVantage

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