Today / A. Petrolera vs Millonarios

A. Petrolera vs Millonarios Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

A. Petrolera

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Millonarios

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-113.2%0-28.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.0%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% — — —

Draw 31.9% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 40.1% — — —

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.7%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Petrolera1.0

Millonarios1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

A. PETROLERA · PPG 1.25

MILLONARIOS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

A. Petrolera (H) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Millonarios (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Petrolera face Millonarios on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Petrolera a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Millonarios 42%, so Millonarios are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for A. Petrolera and 1.3 for Millonarios (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Petrolera are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Millonarios. This match finished 2-2.

A. Petrolera vs Millonarios Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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