Today / Midland vs CA Guemes

Midland vs CA Guemes Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Midland

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

CA Guemes

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-111.8%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.3%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 29.5% — — —

Over 3.5 12.5% — — —

BTTS 38.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob38.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Midland1.1

CA Guemes0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.5% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDLAND · PPG 1.60

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Midland (H) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CA Guemes (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Midland face CA Guemes on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Midland a 41% chance, the draw 35% and CA Guemes 24%, so Midland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Midland and 0.8 for CA Guemes (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Midland are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.25 for CA Guemes. This match finished 2-1.

Midland vs CA Guemes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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