Lyon vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 32 Parc Olympique Lyonnais· Lyon Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:45

Lyon PPG 2.27

4-2 MISS

Rennes PPG 1.67

Draw· +2.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Rennes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Rennes 27%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lyon and 1.2 for Rennes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Rennes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.2%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -5.1%

Draw 27.7%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +2.5%

Away 27.1%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -16.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.0% Odds: 1.62 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.7% Odds: 2.55 -16.6%

BTTS 59.0% Odds: 1.50 -11.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lyon

1.65

Rennes

1.24

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+2.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5/Under 62%

BTTS/No 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -18.0%

Bet Hit 50% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.67)