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Lyon vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:45

Lyon

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rennes

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.4%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.1%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 47.6% 2.10 -5.1%

Draw 27.7% 27.0% 3.70 +2.5%

Away win 27.1% 32.3% 3.10 -16.0%

Over 2.5 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.6%

BTTS 59.0% 66.7% 1.50 -11.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.0%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon1.6

Rennes1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON · PPG 2.27

RENNES · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Lyon (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -5.1%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.5%

Rennes (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Rennes in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Rennes 27%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lyon and 1.2 for Rennes (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Rennes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 4-2.

Lyon vs Rennes Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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