Today / Racing CM vs Montevideo City

Racing CM vs Montevideo City Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Racing CM

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Montevideo City

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-18.9%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.6%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% — — —

Draw 30.5% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.5% — — —

Over 3.5 23.3% — — —

BTTS 50.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing CM1.4

Montevideo City1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CM · PPG 2.00

MONTEVIDEO CITY · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Racing CM (H) 43.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Montevideo City (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing CM face Montevideo City on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing CM a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Montevideo City 26%, so Racing CM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Racing CM and 1.0 for Montevideo City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing CM are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Montevideo City. This match finished 0-4.

Racing CM vs Montevideo City Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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