Today / Colegiales vs SM San Juan

Colegiales vs SM San Juan Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Colegiales

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

SM San Juan

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.5%0-115.6%0-26.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.6%2-15.6%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% — — —

Draw 38.1% — — —

Away win 30.9% — — —

Over 2.5 24.0% — — —

Over 3.5 9.1% — — —

BTTS 34.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob34.5%

D 38% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0 15.6%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales0.8

SM San Juan0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.00

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=30.9%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 38.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SM San Juan (A) 30.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face SM San Juan on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 31% chance, the draw 38% and SM San Juan 31%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Colegiales and 0.8 for SM San Juan (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for SM San Juan. This match finished 2-0.

Colegiales vs SM San Juan Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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