Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

England - Premier League Regular Season - 35 Villa Park· Birmingham Sunday, May 3, 2026 18:00

Aston Villa PPG 2.06

1-2 MISS

Tottenham PPG 1.35

Draw· +1.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa face Tottenham in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Tottenham 26%, so Aston Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aston Villa and 1.2 for Tottenham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.35 for Tottenham. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 45.5%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -4.5%

Draw 28.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +1.2%

Away 25.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -17.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.4% Odds: 1.73 -11.1%

Over 3.5 29.3% Odds: 2.80 -18.0%

BTTS 56.1% Odds: 1.60 -10.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aston Villa

1.58

Tottenham

1.15

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)