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Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Aston Villa

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tottenham

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.5%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.3%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-14.9%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 47.6% 2.10 -4.5%

Draw 28.5% 28.2% 3.55 +1.2%

Away win 25.9% 31.3% 3.20 -17.1%

Over 2.5 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Over 3.5 29.3% 35.7% 2.80 -18.0%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 6.5%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aston Villa1.6

Tottenham1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.4% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTON VILLA · PPG 2.06

TOTTENHAM · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Aston Villa (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.5%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.2%

Tottenham (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aston Villa face Tottenham in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aston Villa a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Tottenham 26%, so Aston Villa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aston Villa and 1.2 for Tottenham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aston Villa are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.35 for Tottenham. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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