Today / Mladost Lucani vs S. Subotica

Mladost Lucani vs S. Subotica Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S. Subotica

PPG 0.65 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.65)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.5%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.8%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 43.8% — — —

Over 3.5 22.7% — — —

BTTS 50.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.8%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1✓ 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lucani1.3

S. Subotica1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.38

S. SUBOTICA · PPG 0.65

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.65)

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lucani (H) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Subotica (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lucani face S. Subotica on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lucani a 41% chance, the draw 31% and S. Subotica 28%, so Mladost Lucani are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mladost Lucani and 1.1 for S. Subotica (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lucani are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.65 for S. Subotica. This match finished 2-1.

Mladost Lucani vs S. Subotica Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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