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Melbourne Srbij vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:15

Melbourne Srbij

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-16.0%0-27.6%0-36.4%0-4+7.3%1 1-02.9%1-17.3%1-29.2%1-37.7%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.4%2-25.6%2-34.7%2-4+5.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.3%3-31.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.6% 38.5% 2.60 -56.8%

Draw 17.6% 27.8% 3.60 -36.6%

Away win 65.8% 46.5% 2.15 +41.5%

Over 2.5 72.1% — — —

Over 3.5 51.4% — — —

BTTS 64.7% 74.1% 1.35 -12.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob64.7%

A 66% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.2%

#2 1–3 7.7%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 1–1 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Srbij1.2

Eltham Redbacks2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 51.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE SRBIJ · PPG 1.50

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Srbij (H) 16.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -56.8%

Draw 17.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -36.6%

Eltham Redbacks (A) 65.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +41.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Srbij face Eltham Redbacks in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Srbij a 17% chance, the draw 18% and Eltham Redbacks 66%, so Eltham Redbacks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Melbourne Srbij and 2.5 for Eltham Redbacks (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Srbij are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Eltham Redbacks. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Melbourne Srbij vs Eltham Redbacks Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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