FC Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Germany - 3. Liga Regular Season - 36 Audi Sportpark· Ingolstadt Sunday, May 3, 2026 17:30

FC Ingolstadt PPG 1.18

3-5 MISS

Erzgebirge Aue PPG 0.47

Home· -1.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ingolstadt face Erzgebirge Aue in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ingolstadt a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Erzgebirge Aue 22%, so FC Ingolstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Ingolstadt and 1.2 for Erzgebirge Aue (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ingolstadt are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.47 for Erzgebirge Aue. This match finished 3-5.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.9%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -1.4%

Draw 25.7%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -2.3%

Away 22.3%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -19.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.6% Odds: 1.50 -12.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% Odds: 2.25 -18.6%

BTTS 60.0% Odds: 1.45 -13.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Ingolstadt

1.87

Erzgebirge Aue

1.18

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.47)