Today / Germany - 3. Liga / FC Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue

FC Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

FC Ingolstadt

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Erzgebirge Aue

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.6%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.5%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.1%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Draw 25.7% 26.3% 3.80 -2.3%

Away win 22.3% 27.8% 3.60 -19.7%

Over 2.5 58.6% 66.7% 1.50 -12.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

BTTS 60.0% 69.0% 1.45 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.0%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Ingolstadt1.9

Erzgebirge Aue1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC INGOLSTADT · PPG 1.18

ERZGEBIRGE AUE · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.47)

Win probability 1X2

FC Ingolstadt (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.3%

Erzgebirge Aue (A) 22.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Ingolstadt face Erzgebirge Aue in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Ingolstadt a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Erzgebirge Aue 22%, so FC Ingolstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Ingolstadt and 1.2 for Erzgebirge Aue (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Ingolstadt are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.47 for Erzgebirge Aue. This match finished 3-5.

FC Ingolstadt vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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