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Altona Magic vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:15

Altona Magic

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.5%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-112.8%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 31.3% 3.20 +40.5%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -3.4%

Away win 28.9% 51.3% 1.95 -43.6%

Over 2.5 43.2% 58.8% 1.70 -26.6%

Over 3.5 22.2% 36.4% 2.75 -39.0%

BTTS 48.2% 63.7% 1.57 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.2%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona Magic1.4

Dandenong T.1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 0.25

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Altona Magic (H) 43.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +40.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.4%

Dandenong T. (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona Magic face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona Magic a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Dandenong T. 29%, so Altona Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Altona Magic and 1.0 for Dandenong T. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona Magic are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.5%. This match finished 2-4.

Altona Magic vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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