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Soroksar vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Soroksar

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Ajka

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-110.4%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.4%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.8%2-18.3%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 50.0% 2.00 -22.0%

Draw 32.0% 34.5% 2.90 -7.2%

Away win 29.0% 28.6% 3.50 +1.5%

Over 2.5 40.8% 48.8% 2.05 -16.4%

Over 3.5 20.4% 25.6% 3.90 -20.4%

BTTS 48.7% 52.4% 1.91 -7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Soroksar1.3

Ajka1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOROKSAR · PPG 1.38

AJKA · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Soroksar (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -22.0%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.2%

Ajka (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Soroksar face Ajka in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Soroksar a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Ajka 29%, so Soroksar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Soroksar and 1.1 for Ajka (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Soroksar are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.31 for Ajka. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Soroksar vs Ajka Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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