Today / National Bank vs Modern Sport

National Bank vs Modern Sport Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

National Bank
PPG 1.38 · HOME
2 – 0
FULL TIME
Modern Sport
PPG 1.23 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-111.7%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.2%2-17.4%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.4%3-12.7%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 40.9%
Draw 35.0%
Away win 24.1%
Over 2.5 30.2%
Over 3.5 12.9%
BTTS 39.1%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE
✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE
xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.1%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%
#2 1–1 13.1%
#3 1–0 16.4%
#4 0–1 11.7%
#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

National Bank1.1
Modern Sport0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NATIONAL BANK · PPG 1.38

MODERN SPORT · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

National Bank (H) 40.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 35.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Modern Sport (A) 24.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

National Bank face Modern Sport on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives National Bank a 41% chance, the draw 35% and Modern Sport 24%, so National Bank are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for National Bank and 0.8 for Modern Sport (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, National Bank are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.23 for Modern Sport. This match finished 2-0.

PredictVantage

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