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Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:30

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.2%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 52.6% 1.90 -30.6%

Draw 31.2% 27.4% 3.65 +13.9%

Away win 32.3% 27.0% 3.70 +19.5%

Over 2.5 44.3% 55.6% 1.80 -20.3%

Over 3.5 23.1% 33.3% 3.00 -30.7%

BTTS 51.7% 58.8% 1.70 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -15.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.7%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.3

Wisla Plock1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.73

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 36.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -30.6%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +13.9%

Wisla Plock (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Wisla Plock 32%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.2 for Wisla Plock (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.20 for Wisla Plock. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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