Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Poland - Ekstraklasa Regular Season - 31 Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera· Szczecin Sunday, May 3, 2026 15:30

Pogon Szczecin PPG 1.73

3-0 MISS

Wisla Plock PPG 1.20

Away· +19.5% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Wisla Plock 32%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.2 for Wisla Plock (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.20 for Wisla Plock. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.5%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -30.6%

Draw 31.2%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +13.9%

Away 32.3%

Odds: 3.70 EV: +19.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.3% Odds: 1.80 -20.3%

Over 3.5 23.1% Odds: 3.00 -30.7%

BTTS 51.7% Odds: 1.70 -12.1%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Pogon Szczecin

1.27

Wisla Plock

1.18

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+19.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)