Today / Poland - Ekstraklasa / Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock

Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:30

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.2%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.2%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% 52.6% 1.90 -30.6%

Draw 31.2% 27.4% 3.65 +13.9%

Away win 32.3% 27.0% 3.70 +19.5%

Over 2.5 44.3% 55.6% 1.80 -20.3%

Over 3.5 23.1% 33.3% 3.00 -30.7%

BTTS 51.7% 58.8% 1.70 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.7%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.3

Wisla Plock1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.73

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 36.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -30.6%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +13.9%

Wisla Plock (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance, the draw 31% and Wisla Plock 32%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogon Szczecin and 1.2 for Wisla Plock (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.20 for Wisla Plock. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - Ekstraklasa Predictions