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Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:15

Strasbourg

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Toulouse

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.0%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.7%1-111.5%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.3%3-15.2%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 37.0% 2.70 +24.2%

Draw 27.9% 29.0% 3.45 -3.7%

Away win 26.1% 41.0% 2.44 -36.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.6% 1.83 -1.6%

Over 3.5 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

BTTS 57.8% 60.6% 1.65 -4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strasbourg1.6

Toulouse1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STRASBOURG · PPG 1.80

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.13

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Strasbourg (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +24.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.7%

Toulouse (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strasbourg face Toulouse in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strasbourg a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Toulouse 26%, so Strasbourg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Strasbourg and 1.2 for Toulouse (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strasbourg are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.13 for Toulouse. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Strasbourg vs Toulouse Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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