Today / Paris FC vs Brest

Paris FC vs Brest Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Paris FC
PPG 1.27 · HOME
4 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
Brest
PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.87)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-17.2%0-24.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.4%1-27.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 41.4%
Draw 27.8%
Away win 30.7%
Over 2.5 56.1%
Over 3.5 33.7%
BTTS 60.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-0
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%
#2 2–1 9.0%
#3 1–2 7.7%
#4 0–0 5.3%
#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paris FC1.6
Brest1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PARIS FC · PPG 1.27

BREST · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Paris FC (H) 41.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 27.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Brest (A) 30.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Paris FC face Brest on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paris FC a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Brest 31%, so Paris FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Paris FC and 1.3 for Brest (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paris FC are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.87 for Brest. This match finished 4-0.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org