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Auxerre vs Angers Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:15

Auxerre

PPG 1.07 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Angers

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.2%0-25.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.3%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 61.0% 1.64 -34.9%

Draw 33.4% 27.8% 3.60 +20.2%

Away win 26.9% 18.2% 5.50 +47.9%

Over 2.5 35.7% 47.6% 2.10 -25.0%

Over 3.5 16.6% 26.7% 3.75 -37.8%

BTTS 44.3% 50.0% 2.00 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.3%

H 40% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auxerre1.2

Angers0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AUXERRE · PPG 1.07

ANGERS · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Auxerre (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -34.9%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +20.2%

Angers (A) 26.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +47.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auxerre face Angers in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auxerre a 40% chance, the draw 33% and Angers 27%, so Auxerre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Auxerre and 0.9 for Angers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auxerre are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.80 for Angers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Auxerre vs Angers Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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