Today / Hungary - NB II / Karcag SE vs Szentlorinc

Karcag SE vs Szentlorinc Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Karcag SE

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Szentlorinc

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.5%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.8%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 38.2% 2.62 +6.9%

Draw 31.0% 32.3% 3.10 -3.9%

Away win 28.2% 42.0% 2.38 -32.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 50.0% 2.00 -12.0%

Over 3.5 22.9% 27.9% 3.58 -18.0%

BTTS 51.0% 57.1% 1.75 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -29.1%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.0%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karcag SE1.3

Szentlorinc1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARCAG SE · PPG 1.69

SZENTLORINC · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=40.8%

Win probability 1X2

Karcag SE (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +6.9%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.9%

Szentlorinc (A) 28.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karcag SE face Szentlorinc in Hungary - NB II on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karcag SE a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Szentlorinc 28%, so Karcag SE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karcag SE and 1.1 for Szentlorinc (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karcag SE are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.62 for Szentlorinc. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Karcag SE vs Szentlorinc Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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