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Vitez vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Vitez

PPG 1.70 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Celik

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-113.2%0-29.1%0-34.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.5%2-16.2%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Draw 31.2% 30.3% 3.30 +3.0%

Away win 44.3% 52.6% 1.90 -15.8%

Over 2.5 41.5% 45.5% 2.20 -8.7%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.5% 4.25 -11.2%

BTTS 48.2% 50.8% 1.97 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob48.2%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.4 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.6%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 0–2 9.1%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitez1.0

Celik1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VITEZ · PPG 1.70

CELIK · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.70), Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

Vitez (H) 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +3.0%

Celik (A) 44.3%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitez face Celik in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitez a 25% chance, the draw 31% and Celik 44%, so Celik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Vitez and 1.4 for Celik (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitez are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Celik. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Vitez vs Celik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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