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Stupcanica vs Travnik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

FBiH - 21 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Stupcanica

PPG 1.90 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Travnik

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.4%0-23.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.8%1-112.4%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 75.2% 1.33 -35.2%

Draw 30.1% 23.8% 4.20 +26.4%

Away win 21.1% 13.3% 7.50 +58.3%

Over 2.5 42.3% 54.1% 1.85 -21.8%

Over 3.5 21.5% 34.2% 2.92 -37.2%

BTTS 47.5% 53.2% 1.88 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -30.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.5%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stupcanica1.5

Travnik0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STUPCANICA · PPG 1.90

TRAVNIK · PPG 0.90

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.90) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Stupcanica (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -35.2%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +26.4%

Travnik (A) 21.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +58.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stupcanica face Travnik in Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stupcanica a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Travnik 21%, so Stupcanica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stupcanica and 0.9 for Travnik (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stupcanica are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.90 for Travnik. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Stupcanica vs Travnik Prediction— Bosnia - 1st League - FBiH

Match Preview & Prediction

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