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George Cross vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:00

George Cross

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-110.4%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.6%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.7%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 21.1% 4.75 +127.5%

Draw 30.2% 25.3% 3.95 +19.3%

Away win 22.0% 63.7% 1.57 -65.5%

Over 2.5 30.5% 60.6% 1.65 -49.7%

Over 3.5 13.1% 38.5% 2.60 -65.9%

BTTS 36.0% 59.9% 1.67 -39.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.0%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.6%

#2 0–0 14.5%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

George Cross1.2

Heidelberg Utd0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.5% · O3.5 PROB 13.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GEORGE CROSS · PPG 2.33

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 2.25

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.33), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

George Cross (H) 47.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +127.5%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +19.3%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 22.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -65.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

George Cross face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives George Cross a 48% chance, the draw 30% and Heidelberg Utd 22%, so George Cross are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for George Cross and 0.7 for Heidelberg Utd (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, George Cross are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.25 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +127.5%. This match finished 0-3.

George Cross vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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