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Excelsior W vs Ajax W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:45

Excelsior W

PPG 0.44 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ajax W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.9%0-29.3%0-38.3%0-4+10.5%1 1-02.5%1-16.8%1-29.1%1-38.1%1-4+10.3%2 2-01.2%2-13.3%2-24.4%2-34.0%2-4+5.0%3 3-00.4%3-11.1%3-21.4%3-31.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.3% — — —

Draw 17.4% — — —

Away win 72.3% — — —

Over 2.5 70.6% — — —

Over 3.5 49.6% — — —

BTTS 59.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob59.1%

A 72% / xG 1.0-2.7 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–3 8.3%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior W1.0

Ajax W2.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR W · PPG 0.44

AJAX W · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior W (H) 10.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ajax W (A) 72.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior W face Ajax W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior W a 10% chance, the draw 17% and Ajax W 72%, so Ajax W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Excelsior W and 2.7 for Ajax W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior W are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 2.00 for Ajax W. This match finished 0-2.

Excelsior W vs Ajax W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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