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ADO Den Haag W vs NAC Breda W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:45

ADO Den Haag W

PPG 0.56 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

NAC Breda W

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.4%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.3%1-19.3%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 65.1% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADO Den Haag W2.1

NAC Breda W1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADO DEN HAAG W · PPG 0.56

NAC BREDA W · PPG 0.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.56) > Away POOR (0.11)

Win probability 1X2

ADO Den Haag W (H) 54.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

NAC Breda W (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ADO Den Haag W face NAC Breda W in Netherlands - Eredivisie Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADO Den Haag W a 55% chance, the draw 24% and NAC Breda W 21%, so ADO Den Haag W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for ADO Den Haag W and 1.3 for NAC Breda W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADO Den Haag W are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 0.11 for NAC Breda W. This match finished 4-2.

ADO Den Haag W vs NAC Breda W Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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