Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Wehen Wiesbaden vs Osnabruck

Wehen Wiesbaden vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 36 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Wehen Wiesbaden

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Osnabruck

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.9%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.3%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.0% 29.0% 3.45 +3.5%

Draw 29.3% 28.6% 3.50 +2.5%

Away win 40.7% 50.0% 2.00 -18.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 57.1% 1.75 -12.0%

Over 3.5 28.3% 35.7% 2.80 -20.8%

BTTS 56.1% 63.7% 1.57 -11.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.1%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wehen Wiesbaden1.2

Osnabruck1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEHEN WIESBADEN · PPG 1.88

OSNABRUCK · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away EXCELLENT (2.12)

Win probability 1X2

Wehen Wiesbaden (H) 30.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +3.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.5%

Osnabruck (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wehen Wiesbaden face Osnabruck in Germany - 3. Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wehen Wiesbaden a 30% chance, the draw 29% and Osnabruck 41%, so Osnabruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Wehen Wiesbaden and 1.5 for Osnabruck (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wehen Wiesbaden are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.12 for Osnabruck. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Wehen Wiesbaden vs Osnabruck Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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