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Manchester Utd vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Manchester Utd

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Liverpool

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 68% chance

Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.8%1-110.7%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.8%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 45.0% 2.22 -3.0%

Draw 26.8% 27.0% 3.70 -0.8%

Away win 29.5% 35.2% 2.84 -16.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Over 3.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

BTTS 62.9% 70.4% 1.42 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.9%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester Utd1.7

Liverpool1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 2.12

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Manchester Utd (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -3.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.8%

Liverpool (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester Utd face Liverpool in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester Utd a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Liverpool 30%, so Manchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Manchester Utd and 1.4 for Liverpool (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester Utd are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.41 for Liverpool. This match finished 3-2.

Manchester Utd vs Liverpool Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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