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Teutonia Weiden vs Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:30

Teutonia Weiden

PPG 0.67 · HOME

5 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Duren

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.9%0-26.6%0-34.9%0-4+4.6%1 1-03.7%1-18.3%1-29.2%1-36.9%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.8%2-26.5%2-34.8%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.7%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 55.1% — — —

Over 2.5 70.2% — — —

Over 3.5 49.1% — — —

BTTS 68.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob68.4%

A 55% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Teutonia Weiden1.4

Duren2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TEUTONIA WEIDEN · PPG 0.67

DUREN · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Teutonia Weiden (H) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Duren (A) 55.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Teutonia Weiden face Duren in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Teutonia Weiden a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Duren 55%, so Duren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Teutonia Weiden and 2.2 for Duren (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Teutonia Weiden are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.92 for Duren. This match finished 5-4.

Teutonia Weiden vs Duren Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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