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Siegburger vs Fortuna Koln B Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:30

Siegburger

PPG 1.50 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fortuna Koln B

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.7%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.7%1-19.4%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.5%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 25.1% — — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 66.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob66.3%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siegburger2.0

Fortuna Koln B1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SIEGBURGER · PPG 1.50

FORTUNA KOLN B · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Siegburger (H) 50.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortuna Koln B (A) 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Siegburger face Fortuna Koln B in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siegburger a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Fortuna Koln B 25%, so Siegburger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Siegburger and 1.4 for Fortuna Koln B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siegburger are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.83 for Fortuna Koln B. This match finished 4-2.

Siegburger vs Fortuna Koln B Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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