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Frechen vs SSV Merten Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:30

Frechen

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SSV Merten

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.58)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.7%0-26.4%0-34.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.2%1-35.8%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.4%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 47.0% — — —

Over 2.5 65.0% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 66.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.5%

A 47% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Frechen1.4

SSV Merten1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FRECHEN · PPG 1.64

SSV MERTEN · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.58)

Win probability 1X2

Frechen (H) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SSV Merten (A) 47.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Frechen face SSV Merten in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Frechen a 28% chance, the draw 25% and SSV Merten 47%, so SSV Merten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Frechen and 1.9 for SSV Merten (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Frechen are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.58 for SSV Merten. This match finished 1-1.

Frechen vs SSV Merten Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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