Today / Venezia W vs Frosinone W

Venezia W vs Frosinone W Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Venezia W
PPG 0.45 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Frosinone W
PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.6%0-27.7%0-35.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.8%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.0%2-16.0%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.6%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 22.1%
Draw 24.4%
Away win 53.5%
Over 2.5 63.5%
Over 3.5 41.4%
BTTS 63.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 54% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%
#2 1–2 9.7%
#3 0–2 7.7%
#4 1–3 6.5%
#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Venezia W1.3
Frosinone W2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VENEZIA W · PPG 0.45

FROSINONE W · PPG 0.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.45) vs Away POOR (0.91)

Win probability 1X2

Venezia W (H) 22.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Frosinone W (A) 53.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Venezia W face Frosinone W on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Venezia W a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Frosinone W 54%, so Frosinone W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Venezia W and 2.0 for Frosinone W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Venezia W are averaging 0.45 points per game versus 0.91 for Frosinone W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org