Today / San Marino A. W vs Freedom W

San Marino A. W vs Freedom W Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

San Marino A. W
PPG 0.82 · HOME
1 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS
Freedom W
PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.82) vs Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.2%0-26.0%0-33.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.3%1-29.0%1-35.8%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.4%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.4%3-32.2%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 28.9%
Draw 24.8%
Away win 46.3%
Over 2.5 66.8%
Over 3.5 45.1%
BTTS 68.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-0
xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob68.0%

A 46% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%
#2 1–2 9.0%
#3 2–1 7.0%
#4 2–2 6.8%
#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marino A. W1.5
Freedom W1.9

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARINO A. W · PPG 0.82

FREEDOM W · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.82) vs Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

San Marino A. W (H) 28.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Freedom W (A) 46.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marino A. W face Freedom W on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marino A. W a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Freedom W 46%, so Freedom W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for San Marino A. W and 1.9 for Freedom W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marino A. W are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.27 for Freedom W. This match finished 1-0.

PredictVantage

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