Today / USD Palmese vs Monastir

USD Palmese vs Monastir Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

USD Palmese

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Monastir

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.0%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.1%1-112.5%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% — — —

Draw 29.9% — — —

Away win 31.5% — — —

Over 2.5 48.6% — — —

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 1–0✓ 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USD Palmese1.4

Monastir1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

USD PALMESE · PPG 1.31

MONASTIR · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

USD Palmese (H) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Monastir (A) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

USD Palmese face Monastir on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USD Palmese a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Monastir 32%, so USD Palmese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for USD Palmese and 1.2 for Monastir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USD Palmese are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Monastir. This match finished 1-0.

USD Palmese vs Monastir Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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