Today / Ghiviborgo vs Grosseto

Ghiviborgo vs Grosseto Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Ghiviborgo

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Grosseto

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.9%0-27.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.4%2-17.0%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.0%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% — — —

Draw 31.4% — — —

Away win 39.7% — — —

Over 2.5 42.8% — — —

Over 3.5 22.0% — — —

BTTS 50.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.3%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghiviborgo1.1

Grosseto1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GHIVIBORGO · PPG 1.75

GROSSETO · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Ghiviborgo (H) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Grosseto (A) 39.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghiviborgo face Grosseto on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghiviborgo a 29% chance, the draw 31% and Grosseto 40%, so Grosseto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ghiviborgo and 1.3 for Grosseto (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghiviborgo are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.13 for Grosseto.

Ghiviborgo vs Grosseto Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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