Today / FC Siena vs S. Trestina

FC Siena vs S. Trestina Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

FC Siena

PPG 1.69 · HOME

4 – 4

FULL TIME

S. Trestina

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-18.6%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.1%1-112.5%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.4%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% — — —

Draw 30.2% — — —

Away win 22.8% — — —

Over 2.5 43.3% — — —

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 49.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.0%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Siena1.5

S. Trestina1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SIENA · PPG 1.69

S. TRESTINA · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

FC Siena (H) 46.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

S. Trestina (A) 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Siena face S. Trestina on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Siena a 47% chance, the draw 30% and S. Trestina 23%, so FC Siena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Siena and 1.0 for S. Trestina (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Siena are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.13 for S. Trestina. This match finished 4-4.

FC Siena vs S. Trestina Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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