Today / USD Casatese vs Leon

USD Casatese vs Leon Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

USD Casatese

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Leon

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-110.9%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% — — —

Draw 32.7% — — —

Away win 28.5% — — —

Over 2.5 38.4% — — —

Over 3.5 18.5% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob46.7%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.8%

#3 1–0✓ 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USD Casatese1.2

Leon1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

USD CASATESE · PPG 1.63

LEON · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

USD Casatese (H) 38.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Leon (A) 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

USD Casatese face Leon on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USD Casatese a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Leon 28%, so USD Casatese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for USD Casatese and 1.0 for Leon (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USD Casatese are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.75 for Leon. This match finished 1-0.

USD Casatese vs Leon Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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