Today / F. Caratese vs Sondrio

F. Caratese vs Sondrio Prediction

Sunday, May 3, 2026

F. Caratese

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sondrio

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=59.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.5%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.8%1-110.4%1-24.6%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.2%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 15.4% — — —

Over 2.5 52.5% — — —

Over 3.5 30.2% — — —

BTTS 51.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.3%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Caratese1.9

Sondrio0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

F. CARATESE · PPG 1.88

SONDRIO · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=59.6%

Win probability 1X2

F. Caratese (H) 59.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sondrio (A) 15.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Caratese face Sondrio on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Caratese a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Sondrio 15%, so F. Caratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for F. Caratese and 0.9 for Sondrio (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Caratese are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.94 for Sondrio.

F. Caratese vs Sondrio Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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