F. Caratese face Sondrio on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Caratese a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Sondrio 15%, so F. Caratese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for F. Caratese and 0.9 for Sondrio (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Caratese are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.94 for Sondrio.
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=59.6%