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SF Duren vs Konigsdorf Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

SF Duren

PPG 0.83 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Konigsdorf

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.0%0-23.8%0-33.3%0-4+4.0%1 1-02.2%1-15.6%1-27.2%1-36.2%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.0%2-15.3%2-26.8%2-35.8%2-4+7.0%3 3-01.3%3-13.3%3-24.3%3-33.7%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.4%4+-23.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 52.5% — — —

Over 2.5 82.2% — — —

Over 3.5 65.1% — — —

BTTS 79.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob79.2%

A 52% / xG 1.9-2.6 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–3 6.2%

#5 2–3✓ 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SF Duren1.9

Konigsdorf2.6

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.2% · O3.5 PROB 65.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SF DUREN · PPG 0.83

KONIGSDORF · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SF Duren (H) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Konigsdorf (A) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SF Duren face Konigsdorf in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SF Duren a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Konigsdorf 53%, so Konigsdorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for SF Duren and 2.6 for Konigsdorf (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SF Duren are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Konigsdorf. This match finished 2-3.

SF Duren vs Konigsdorf Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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