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Porz vs Pesch Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Porz

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pesch

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.5%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.2%1-12.1%1-22.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-02.3%2-14.3%2-23.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.1%3-15.7%3-25.3%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-116.6%4+-215.2%4+-39.3%4+-4+6.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.1% — — —

Draw 12.4% — — —

Away win 12.5% — — —

Over 2.5 93.0% — — —

Over 3.5 83.4% — — —

BTTS 82.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob82.9%

H 75% / xG 4.0-1.8 / O2.5 93% / BTTS 83%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 5.7%

#2 4–1 5.7%

#3 3–2 5.3%

#4 4–2 5.3%

#5 5–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Porz4.0

Pesch1.8

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 93.0% · O3.5 PROB 83.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORZ · PPG 0.83

PESCH · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.83) > Away POOR (0.17)

Win probability 1X2

Porz (H) 75.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 12.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pesch (A) 12.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Porz face Pesch in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Porz a 75% chance, the draw 12% and Pesch 13%, so Porz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.0 for Porz and 1.8 for Pesch (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 93% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 83% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Porz are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 0.17 for Pesch.

Porz vs Pesch Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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