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Bergisch G. vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Mittelrhein - 25 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Bergisch G.

PPG 2.18 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Hennef

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-11.8%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.5%1-15.5%1-22.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-013.0%4+-113.0%4+-26.5%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.8% — — —

Draw 14.7% — — —

Away win 8.5% — — —

Over 2.5 76.2% — — —

Over 3.5 56.7% — — —

BTTS 60.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 83%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.8%

H 77% / xG 3.0-1.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 2–0 8.3%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bergisch G.3.0

Hennef1.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.2% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BERGISCH G. · PPG 2.18

HENNEF · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bergisch G. (H) 76.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hennef (A) 8.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bergisch G. face Hennef in Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bergisch G. a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Hennef 9%, so Bergisch G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Bergisch G. and 1.0 for Hennef (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bergisch G. are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.75 for Hennef. This match finished 5-1.

Bergisch G. vs Hennef Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Mittelrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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