France - Ligue 1Regular Season - 32Stade Pierre-Mauroy· LilleSunday, May 3, 202613:00
LillePPG 1.87
1-1HIT MostLikelyScore
Le HavrePPG 0.53
Away· +47.6%✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home54.0%
Odds: 1.40EV: -24.4%
Draw27.9%
Odds: 4.20EV: +17.2%
Away18.0%
Odds: 8.20EV: +47.6%
Model lean: HomeNot tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.546.2%Odds: 1.83-15.4%
Over 3.524.7%Odds: 3.10-23.4%
BTTS48.8%Odds: 2.00-2.4%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st1-1✔
2nd1-0✘
3rd2-0✘
4th0-0✘
5th2-1✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Lille
1.65
Le Havre
0.87
Model Suggestion
Home-24.4%NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -24.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. Highest raw EV: Away (+47.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=54.0%