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France - Ligue 1 logo France flag France - Ligue 1 Regular Season - 32 Stade Pierre-Mauroy· Lille Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00
Lille logo Lille PPG 1.87
1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Le Havre logo Le Havre PPG 0.53
Away· +47.6% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.0%
Odds: 1.40 EV: -24.4%
Draw 27.9%
Odds: 4.20 EV: +17.2%
Away 18.0%
Odds: 8.20 EV: +47.6%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.2% Odds: 1.83 -15.4%
Over 3.5 24.7% Odds: 3.10 -23.4%
BTTS 48.8% Odds: 2.00 -2.4%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 1-0
3rd 2-0
4th 0-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Lille
1.65
Le Havre
0.87

Model Suggestion

Home -24.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -24.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+47.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=54.0%

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