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Lille vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Lille

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Le Havre

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.0%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.6%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.2%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

Draw 27.9% 23.8% 4.20 +17.2%

Away win 18.0% 12.2% 8.20 +47.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.6% 1.83 -15.4%

Over 3.5 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -23.4%

BTTS 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.8%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lille1.7

Le Havre0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLE · PPG 1.87

LE HAVRE · PPG 0.53

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.87) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Lille (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +17.2%

Le Havre (A) 18.0%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lille face Le Havre in France - Ligue 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lille a 54% chance, the draw 28% and Le Havre 18%, so Lille are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Lille and 0.9 for Le Havre (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lille are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.53 for Le Havre. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Lille vs Le Havre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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