Today / England - Premier League / Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Bournemouth

PPG 1.59 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.7%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 62.9% 1.59 -35.8%

Draw 29.8% 25.0% 4.00 +19.2%

Away win 29.8% 19.0% 5.25 +56.5%

Over 2.5 48.7% 59.9% 1.67 -18.7%

Over 3.5 26.9% 37.0% 2.70 -27.4%

BTTS 54.9% 58.8% 1.70 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bournemouth1.4

Crystal Palace1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.59

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Bournemouth (H) 40.4%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -35.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +19.2%

Crystal Palace (A) 29.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +56.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bournemouth face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bournemouth a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Crystal Palace 30%, so Bournemouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Crystal Palace (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bournemouth are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.44 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Premier League Predictions