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Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Bournemouth

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.7%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 62.9% 1.59 -35.8%

Draw 29.8% 25.0% 4.00 +19.2%

Away win 29.8% 19.0% 5.25 +56.5%

Over 2.5 48.7% 59.9% 1.67 -18.7%

Over 3.5 26.9% 37.0% 2.70 -27.4%

BTTS 54.9% 58.8% 1.70 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bournemouth1.4

Crystal Palace1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.59

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.59), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Bournemouth (H) 40.4%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -35.8%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +19.2%

Crystal Palace (A) 29.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +56.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bournemouth face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bournemouth a 40% chance, the draw 30% and Crystal Palace 30%, so Bournemouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Crystal Palace (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bournemouth are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.44 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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